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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 FOR NE NM AND THE TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

Mesoscale Convective Discussion 933, 2001 Map

 

                   VALID 291831Z - 292100Z

                   AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO WATCH.

                   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EAST OF DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF TUCUMCARI NM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK.  WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AS     UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE DRY LINE BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.

                   AREA OF STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IS ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA OVER THE PANHANDLE...CENTERED ON LUBBOCK...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE.  18Z SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO INDICATES MID-LEVEL CAP IS WEAKENING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
                   ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...INTENSIFYING LIFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 21Z...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ALONG 50 KT 500 MB JET AXIS...ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
                   FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

                   ..KERR.. 05/29/01

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